中國科學技術發展戰略研究院:中國科技金融生態年度觀察(2016)丨總論

浪潮褪去:互聯網金融概念的破滅
走在十字路口的中國
經濟下行初期金融業的機遇,與中後期泡沫破裂風險
中國GDP破7是shi一yi個ge標biao誌zhi,這zhe意yi味wei著zhe我wo國guo宏hong觀guan經jing濟ji,實shi體ti經jing濟ji遇yu到dao了le增zeng長chang瓶ping頸jing,這zhe種zhong源yuan自zi實shi體ti經jing濟ji的de風feng險xian傳chuan導dao給gei金jin融rong業ye,帶dai來lai的de卻que是shi天tian堂tang與yu地di域yu間jian的de景jing象xiang。經jing濟ji下xia行xing初chu期qi,隨sui著zhe風feng險xian加jia劇ju,金jin融rong業ye所suo要yao求qiu的de風feng險xian補bu償chang也ye隨sui之zhi增zeng加jia,因yin此ci在zai這zhe一yi階jie段duan,金jin融rong業ye的de利li潤run不bu會hui降jiang低di,反fan而er會hui增zeng加jia。所suo以yi金jin融rong在zai更geng大da的de風feng險xian來lai臨lin之zhi前qian,是shi存cun在zai火huo爆bao的de機ji遇yu的de,而er這zhe種zhong火huo爆bao亦yi會hui進jin一yi步bu加jia劇ju實shi體ti經jing濟ji的de壓ya力li,如ru果guo經jing濟ji硬ying著zhe陸lu,就jiu會hui有you毀hui滅mie性xing的de打da擊ji。所suo以yi未wei來lai5年內,受國際局勢和我國國內經濟的影響,如果政策方麵不加以限製,金融業依然會有發展空間。

逐漸失去活性的中國金融
一放就亂,一管就死的循環
金融在中國的地位始終不容動搖,而這種過度的重視,導致我國金融行業在多年前就已經失去了活性。這種弊端體現在金融業的“一放就亂,一管就死”現象,無論是銀行、證券、jijinhaishibaoxian,zhezhonghulenghuredebiaoxianjiweimingxian。zheqizhongguranyoutizhineiningqiuwucuodesixiangyingxiang,dangengzhuyaodeshi,youyuqueshaoshijijianyan,jinrongxingyeduiguoneishitijingjidefengxianpanbienengliyijingjiaoweiluohou。2010nianhou,woguoxindaiyunyongzengsuzhouranxiajiang,erzheyishiqi,yeshiwoguohulianwangjinrongfazhandehuangjinshiqi,muqianhaihennanhenglianghulianwangjinrongshifounenghuifuzhongguojinrongdehuoxing,ruguonengtuidongchuantongjinrongdeshengji,namehouxuwoguojinrongyejianghuiyoujiaodatisheng,shitijingjihuoyekebimianyingzheludeganga。

艱難的轉型
多元化的資金運用方式
從2011年nian起qi,我wo國guo中zhong長chang期qi貸dai款kuan與yu短duan期qi貸dai款kuan的de增zeng速su呈cheng現xian出chu交jiao替ti上shang升sheng的de狀zhuang態tai,之zhi前qian經jing濟ji促cu進jin政zheng策ce的de副fu作zuo用yong還hai在zai延yan續xu,加jia之zhi國guo家jia對dui非fei常chang規gui信xin貸dai,新xin客ke群qun,新xin行xing業ye等deng方fang向xiang金jin融rong政zheng策ce的de搖yao擺bai,導dao致zhi中zhong長chang期qi貸dai款kuan和he短duan期qi貸dai款kuan占zhan比bi波bo動dong較jiao大da。除chu此ci之zhi外wai,從cong數shu據ju上shang依yi然ran可ke以yi看kan到dao我wo們men對dui信xin貸dai多duo元yuan化hua的de努nu力li,票piao據ju、rongzizulinhegexiangdiankuandezhanbizhengzaihuanmankuoda。zhongguodejinrongjigoutixipangda,wulunshigaigehezhuanxingdoumianlinzhejudadezuli,suoyinengyouzhexieweixiaodegaibianyijingfeichangnande。duiyuhulianwangjinronglaishuo,yinengcongzhonghuoyi。

互聯網金融神秘的麵紗
以模塊化的方式,遊走於各類金融業務邊緣
互hu聯lian網wang金jin融rong的de出chu現xian,帶dai給gei原yuan有you金jin融rong秩zhi序xu的de衝chong擊ji是shi多duo方fang麵mian的de。除chu了le業ye務wu多duo元yuan化hua方fang麵mian,用yong戶hu定ding位wei以yi及ji金jin融rong常chang識shi三san方fang麵mian的de影ying響xiang以yi外wai,更geng重zhong要yao的de是shi對dui固gu有you監jian管guan手shou段duan的de衝chong擊ji。這zhe種zhong衝chong擊ji源yuan於yu對dui互hu聯lian網wang金jin融rong業ye務wu本ben質zhi界jie定ding的de模mo糊hu,互hu聯lian網wang善shan用yong模mo塊kuai化hua的de方fang式shi,將jiang不bu同tong金jin融rong業ye務wu的de某mou一yi部bu分fen拆chai分fen之zhi後hou重zhong新xin組zu合he,形xing成cheng更geng加jia市shi場chang化hua的de新xin產chan品pin。因yin此ci這zhe種zhong產chan品pin就jiu具ju備bei了le多duo種zhong金jin融rong要yao素su,而er這zhe些xie要yao素su的de監jian管guan單dan位wei,往wang往wang分fen屬shu於yu不bu同tong機ji構gou。這zhe造zao成cheng了le兩liang方fang麵mian困kun擾rao: 一方麵,傳統金融機構找不到與互聯網金融競爭的方式,業務受限嚴重;另一方麵,針對互聯網金融的監管細則難以落地,而政策紅利也使互聯網金融滋生了許多灰色地帶。

十年野蠻,一朝落幕
政策收緊,互聯網金融野蠻生長告一段落
zaiquanqiufanweinei,zhongguodejingjifazhanhuanjinghejiezoudoubijiaoteshu,zhengceduichanyexingshuaideyingxiangjuda。yincimouyixingyenenggouxunsufazhandeyiyuliangzhongqingkuang,yizhongjiushizhengcemingquezhichidexingye,erlingwaiyizhongjiushijianguannanyifugaidehuisejiaoluo。chucizhiwai,zhongguodeminjiancaifushizhongshifuyuzhongguojingjifanrongbingshanxiadeteshuziben,zhebufenzibenhenshaotongguozhengchangdejinrongqudaoliudong,tamenyaomeqianzangzaiguanfangjinrongchanpindebeihou,yaomeyixiangmudefangshijinmigensuizaizhengcebeihou,qiaorantuidongzhemeiyilunzhengceyindaodelingyu。zhezhongjiacengdetexingshiminjianzibenjuyoubujifengxiandezhulixing,zhezhongtoujitexingzaihulianwangjinronglingyudedaolechongfendeshifang。jiyuci,zhengcehongliranghulianwangjinrongyidubeiyuweiyemanshengchangdexingye,erlijing10年nian的de發fa展zhan監jian管guan與yu互hu聯lian網wang金jin融rong之zhi間jian已yi經jing逐zhu漸jian熟shu悉xi,隨sui著zhe中zhong國guo互hu聯lian網wang金jin融rong協xie會hui的de成cheng立li,規gui範fan與yu安an全quan成cheng為wei行xing業ye發fa展zhan的de主zhu旋xuan律lv,同tong時shi也ye意yi味wei著zhe原yuan本ben寬kuan鬆song的de政zheng策ce環huan境jing有you收shou緊jin的de趨qu勢shi。2016年(nian)後(hou),業(ye)界(jie)也(ye)明(ming)顯(xian)感(gan)受(shou)到(dao)了(le)行(xing)業(ye)寒(han)冬(dong),互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)金(jin)融(rong)概(gai)念(nian)走(zou)下(xia)神(shen)壇(tan),十(shi)年(nian)野(ye)蠻(man),一(yi)朝(chao)落(luo)幕(mu)。然(ran)而(er)互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)金(jin)融(rong)並(bing)沒(mei)有(you)因(yin)此(ci)消(xiao)失(shi),取(qu)而(er)代(dai)之(zhi)的(de)金(jin)融(rong)科(ke)技(ji)正(zheng)以(yi)星(xing)火(huo)燎(liao)原(yuan)之(zhi)勢(shi),延(yan)續(xu)互(hu)聯(lian)網(wang)金(jin)融(rong)的(de)傳(chuan)奇(qi)。
